Sunday, 29 September 2013

Crisis Anticipation

Complexity technology establishes a radically innovative means of anticipating crises. Systems under severe stress or on a path to collapse undergo either rapid complexity fluctuations or exhibit a consistent growth of complexity. If complexity is not measured, these precious  crisis precursors will go unnoticed. Conventional methods are unable to identify such precursors.

How does complexity-based crisis anticipation work? You simply measure and track business complexity (yours or of your clients), and look out for any sudden changes or even slow but consistent drifts. This technique provides the basis for a rational and holistic crisis-anticipation system for decision-makers, investors, managers, and policy-makers. Essentially, the system buys you time, the most precious resource you have.

Our complexity-based crisis anticipation functions in real-time and may be applied to:
  • Corporations
  • Banks (in this case we indicate clients who may be defaulting)
  • Asset portfolios
  • Customer-retention
  • Process plants
  • Traffic systems
  • IT systems

Be warned of problems before it is too late.

Read article.

Contact us at for more information.


Saturday, 28 September 2013

Measuring Processes in Banks Using the DDD DataPicker and OntoNet

Ontonix and PRB have integrated OntoNet™, the World's first real-time Quantitative Complexity Management engine into PRB's DDD DataPicker™ system. The DDD DataPicker™ system is an advanced and configurable platform for document, process and workflow management which is used mainly in banks to monitor a multitude of processes. Integration of OntoNet™ with the DDD system allows its users to measure in real-time the complexity of various processes and to quickly identify those that are excessively complex thereby reducing process efficiency. Moreover, the system allows users to identify which phases of a particular process are responsible for high complexity, indicating quickly where to intervene.

The following slide illustrates the dashboard showing the process of "Credit Management" and its various phases. Without going into the details, the various dials on the dashboard indicate process simplicity (the complement to complexity) from a process management standpoint (0%- low simplicity = hard to manage, 100% - high simplicity = easy to manage). The color of the dials, on the other hand, indicates process robustness (green = robust, red = fragile).

Clicking on any of the above dials opens a window which illustrates the highest (3) contributors to the complexity of a particular phase of a give process, and produces the so-called Complexity Profile (i.e. breakdown into components).

Finally, each curve may be navigated interactively, enabling users to identify quickly periods of high complexity and/or low process robustness and to identify the causes.

The objective, of course, is to make processes more robust 8stable and repeatable) as well as more efficient. The final goal is to cut costs without sacrificing efficiency and customer satisfaction. More soon.

Crowdrating Systems of Banks Using Stockmarkets

Crowdrating Systems of Banks Using Stockmarkets: Assetdyne , the London-based company which has introduced for the first time the concepts of complexity and resilience to stock and stoc...

Crowdrating Systems of Banks Using Stockmarkets

Assetdyne, the London-based company which has introduced for the first time the concepts of complexity and resilience to stock and stock portfolio analysis and design, has analyzed recently systems of banks, namely those of Brazil, Singapore, Israel, as well top European banks. The way this is done is to assemble portfolios of the said banks and to treat them as system (which, in reality, they are!). The results are provided with comments.





 European banks

Similar analysis may be run free of charge at Assetdyne's website. As the analyses are performed on daily Close value of the corresponding stocks, the above indicated values of complexity and resilience may also change on a daily basis.

Monday, 23 September 2013

Ontonix S.r.l.: Is Risk Management a Source of Risk

Ontonix S.r.l.: Is Risk Management a Source of Risk: The deployment of risk management within a business can be a source of false assurance. Over recent years, businesses have becom...

Is Risk Management a Source of Risk

The deployment of risk management within a business can be a source of false assurance.

Over recent years, businesses have become more and more reliant on increasingly complex modelling processes to predict outcomes, to the point that in many cases, businesses have lost sight of what risk management is all about - and at the same time, risk management lost sight of what the business was all about. Increasingly, I have seen risk management services being deployed in large institutions by the 'big four' consultancy firms, and to keep their huge costs down, they end up with the newly qualified consultants - mid twenties, bright young things, but I'm sorry, they often don't have the faintest idea what your business does. They have insufficient real world experience to permit effective dissemination of risk knowledge.

I worked with one lovely young lady recently in a banking environment. Very intelligent - but she did not have the first clue of what the business was about. She made assumptions, and those assumptions lead the business down some long, dark alleys.

If you have risk function, however, that fully understands the business model, the deployment of its operational strategy, the sector the business operates in and the macro-economic and socio-political environment in which it operates, then they will be able to provide risk information that is relevant to the business, and can be understood by the business.

My hope going into this recession was that businesses would learn from this period in time, and take a more realistic, holistic view of the world. Worryingly, what I see is "more of the same".

I see financial institutions that have - on the face of it - bolstered their risk functions, but in doing so have allowed them to become ever more 'siloed' and fractured in their approach. This can only lead to disaster, in my view. The left hand will not know what the right hand is doing - no one owns anything, no one is responsible, no one is accountable.

So, I think the deployment of risk management has been a source of risk, but I don't think the dramas are over yet. There is a second wave of failure yet to hit, unless businesses can swallow the pill and take the right approach.

Posted by Andrew Bird, Managing Director at Nile Blue and freelance business consultant.

Saturday, 21 September 2013

Ontonix S.r.l.: Measuring the magnitdue of a crisis

Ontonix S.r.l.: Measuring the magnitdue of a crisis: How can you measure the magnitude of an economic crisis? By the number of lost jobs, foreclosures, GDP drop, number of defaulti...