tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14707353112968101072024-03-13T06:14:58.770+01:00Ontonix S.r.l.Quantitative Complexity Management blog.
Copyright (C) 2005-2013 Ontonix
www.ontonix.com
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.comBlogger176125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-40340479119435925582014-03-07T14:48:00.001+01:002014-03-07T14:48:48.582+01:00Innovation in Finance is Possible<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgolNK-UEwsE_S_P837PaLdoJOEO0ow2vqoRBepaK7Mw6lKpKAJU-S_RHEFJ5GUMDC7DmVS30b6q6FHlYaRR-oB8QEuIJnpyR_-J-IhARAtqHQwugr6Q_FpIoa09SRa_AI6cyZGsDF-jdDK/s1600/People.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgolNK-UEwsE_S_P837PaLdoJOEO0ow2vqoRBepaK7Mw6lKpKAJU-S_RHEFJ5GUMDC7DmVS30b6q6FHlYaRR-oB8QEuIJnpyR_-J-IhARAtqHQwugr6Q_FpIoa09SRa_AI6cyZGsDF-jdDK/s1600/People.jpg" height="330" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<span class="Testo" id="ctl00_cph_master_ctl00_Controls_Articolo_ascx_grdArticolo_ctl00_ctl04_testo_articolo">The
rating, a parameter that reflects the state of health of a company,
occupies a central position in the world economy . Users of ratings are
private and institutional investors, brokers, traders, analysts, and,
lately, even politicians. Ratings, which are used essentially to decide
which companies to invest in, are free and are published in newspapers
and on the web. The process leading to the definition of the rating of a
company is long and complex and has long been the focus of much
discussion and controversy since it is often paid by the same companies
being valued. Despite the conflict of interest is obvious, the largest
international agencies - Moody's, Standard & Poor 's and Fitch –
continue to hold a rating monopoly. Who controls the rating agencies -
largely companies that manage huge investment funds - has immense power.
Everybody knows that. Everybody continues to use ratings.</span><br />
<span class="Testo" id="ctl00_cph_master_ctl00_Controls_Articolo_ascx_grdArticolo_ctl00_ctl04_testo_articolo"><br />
We have always maintained that the rating process of a firm should be
more transparent, objective and, above all, accessible even for the
smallest of businesses. With this goal in mind we have launched the
World’s first system ' self- rating' system - <a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/index.php" target="_blank"><em>Rate-A-Business</em></a>
- which allows anyone to upload data from the financial statements of a
company and to obtain in a few seconds a measure of its state of
health. The system works for both listed companies as well as for those
not present on stock exchanges. In essence, the tool moves the process
of rating from the agencies to the Internet, making it more
"democratic", fast and easily accessible by investors or even by smaller
companies . In other words, the rating is transformed from a luxury to
'commodity'. More than that, it becomes a useful tool in managing a
business. This is the philosophy that inspires the Rate- A- Business
platform.<br />
<strong><br />
How does Rate-A-Business work? </strong><br />
To obtain the rating with Rate-A-Business, whether it is for a listed
companies or not, one must have quarterly data from the company’s income
statement, cash flow, balance sheet or ratios. It is advisable to use
data for the last 12 quarters (three years). A small example is shown
below (the data is fictitious).
</span><br />
<div>
<table align="center">
<thead>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><br />
<img alt="" src="http://bck.lamiafinanza.it/Portali/5/Immagini/grafici_marczyk/jm_rate-a-business_01.png" /></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div>
Once data has been uploaded the system processes the numbers,
establishes the inter-dependencies between the various entries and
measures the overall amount of “chaos” (uncertainty) contained within
the data. Data entries with highly random or chaotic evolution are a
reflection of a business that is not predictable and therefore difficult
to manage, as in the example below.</div>
<div>
<br />
<table align="center">
<thead>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><img alt="" src="http://www.lamiafinanza.ch/Portali/1/Immagini/grafici_marczyk/ScreenHunter_227%20Jan.%2021%2014.25.jpg" style="height: 161px; width: 450px;" /></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div>
<br />
</div>
Clearly, the more entries behave chaotically the more the company in
question is vulnerable. Additionally, if these items are related to each
other, the company is heavily exposed given that a problem with either
of them can spread rapidly throughout the system. The degree of chaos
that a company is able to withstand is called "critical complexity ".
Near this threshold the trends of the various data entries is so
uncertain and unpredictable that the company is virtually
uncontrollable. Clearly, if, for example, the balance sheet entries have
evolved chaotically , it is easy to imagine similar performance in
terms of sales, production and, eventually, across the entire
enterprise. So, the more a company functions far from threshold of its
"critical complexity" it is more healthy. This, in summary, is the
spirit of the new rating system available on the Rate A Business
platform: measure the distance that separates a company from a state of
"total chaos".
<div>
<br />
</div>
<div>
<strong>How does Assetdyne works?</strong> </div>
In the case of listed companies, the Assetdyne platform is connected in
real time to different stock markets and collects the closing values of
different securities. Using a technique similar to auto-correlation, the
system assembles a table with those values going back a number of days.
The system, at this point, measures the distance of these data from a
state of "total chaos" (i.e. critical complexity ). The more the data in
question are complex the more the evolution of the price of those
securities results fragile and unpredictable. The operation of the
system is very easy - one enters a ticker symbol and in a matter of
seconds the system provides a measure of the complexity and resilience
of its daily evolution.<br />
<span class="Testo" id="ctl00_cph_master_ctl00_Controls_Articolo_ascx_grdArticolo_ctl00_ctl04_testo_articolo"><br />
As mentioned, high complexity implies chaos. As complexity approaches
"critical complexity" the dynamics of the price per share becomes
uncertain and therefore less resilient. To give an example, think of the
value of cholesterol, which should be kept at a certain distance from a
maximum value established by our physician. Near this threshold, our
health is at risk. The situation with stocks and their dynamics is
similar. If the trend is more complex (chaotic ) this increases the
possibility of surprises and, therefore, the level of exposure.
Complexity, therefore, provides a new measure of volatility
(variability) which is not based on the conventional concepts of
normality or linear correlation and which are questionable in a highly
turbulent regime.</span><br />
<span class="Testo" id="ctl00_cph_master_ctl00_Controls_Articolo_ascx_grdArticolo_ctl00_ctl04_testo_articolo"><br />
Resilience, on the other hand , which measures the ability to absorb
shocks and extreme events, ranges from 0 % to 100%. The closer you get
to 100 % the more predictable and stable the situation is. Low value of
resilience point to situations which are chaotic, hence difficult to
predict. Two examples of complexity and resilience rating systemic
European banks are illustrated below:
</span><br />
<div>
<br />
<table align="center">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
<table class="telerik-reTable-1" style="width: 300px;">
<thead>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="telerik-reTableHeaderRow-1">
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" colspan="2" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Intesa Sanpaolo (ISPM.MI) </span><br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="telerik-reTableOddRow-1">
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><em><span style="font-size: 13px;">previous close <br />
</span></em>
</td>
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; width: 100px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13px;"> 1.83</span></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="telerik-reTableEvenRow-1">
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><em><span style="font-size: 13px;">stock complexity <br />
</span></em>
</td>
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13px;"> 12.48</span></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="telerik-reTableOddRow-1">
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><em><span style="font-size: 13px;">stock resilence <br />
</span></em>
</td>
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13px;"> 85.12%</span></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="telerik-reTableEvenRow-1">
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><em><span style="font-size: 13px;"><br />
</span></em>
</td>
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<table class="telerik-reTable-1" style="width: 300px;">
<thead>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="telerik-reTableHeaderRow-1">
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" colspan="2" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Credit Suisse Group (CS) </span><br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="telerik-reTableOddRow-1">
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><em><span style="font-size: 13px;">previous close <br />
</span></em>
</td>
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; width: 100px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13px;"> 31.05</span></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="telerik-reTableEvenRow-1">
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><em><span style="font-size: 13px;">stock complexity <br />
</span></em>
</td>
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13px;"> 28.91</span></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="telerik-reTableOddRow-1">
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><em><span style="font-size: 13px;">stock resilence <br />
</span></em>
</td>
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13px;"> 73.78%</span></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="telerik-reTableEvenRow-1">
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><br /></td>
<td class="telerik-reTableFirstCol-1" style="height: 25px; text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br />
<div>
<strong>Portfolio ratings</strong></div>
Assetdyne’s rating platform is also applicable to portfolios of
securities. Given that the computation of portfolio complexity is based
on the closing prices at the end of the day, its value changes on a
daily basis. It is, ultimately, a high-frequency portfolio rating
system. It should be remembered that traditional ratings are generally
issued once a year, when companies publish their consolidated financial
statements. Given the speed of the economy, this may be inadequate.</div>
<div>
<br />
One of the objectives of Assetdyne’s rating system is to indicate which
are the securities or products which make a portfolio highly complex and
which should be avoided by less experienced investors. What is
surprising is that we all know that highly complex products are risky
and yet no one has ever measured their actual complexity. Assetdyne does
just that - for the first time we measure the complexity of stocks,
portfolios of shares or other financial products.<br />
<br />
As a final comment, one might conclude that stock markets constitute a
huge social network in which millions of people participate in a global
"game" called trading. One of the results of this game is the real-time
share price of all the listed companies and which affects immediately
the world’s economy. It is important, therefore, that every participant
be aware of those financial products which hide high complexity, the
most formidable source of fragility and risk.
<div>
<br />
</div>
<div>
<em>*<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/" target="_blank">Assetdyne</a>,
has developed a new rating system for listed companies seeking to make
the ratings as objective as possible by addressing the problem of
potentially unreliable financial statements. This system is based on the
concept of 'crowd- rating ' and has its roots in the stock market.<br />
The value of the shares of a company is the result of a complex
interaction of millions of traders, analysts, investors, trading robots,
etc. Ultimately, it is a reflection of the reputation and the
perceived value of a company and is the result of a collective and
'democratic' process. Clearly, the value of a security is also driven by
market trends, industry analysis, rumors, insider trading and other
illegal practices and, of course, by the rating agencies. However,
undeniably, it is the millions of investors who ultimately drive the
price and the dynamics of the securities in accordance with the
fundamental principles of supply and demand.</em></div>
<div>
<em><br />
Assetdyne uses information about the daily value and the dynamics of the
stock price of a company to actually calculate its rating. The rating
that is calculated in this manner does not reflect the probability of
default (i.e. the probability of bankruptcy) of a particular company -
this is what a traditional rating produces, an AAA , BBB or CCC for
instance - it reflects the complexity (degree of chaos) of the dynamics
of its stock. This is very important for a number of reasons. Stocks
with very complex dynamics are far more unpredictable than those with
simpler dynamics. Highly complex and volatile dynamics are able to
surprise investors, very often at the worst moment in time. It so
happens that our economy and stock markets are not only very turbulent
and chaotic , but also extremely complex. A rating based on the
complexity of the stocks of listed companies reflects, therefore, the
hallmark of our times - complexity.</em></div>
<div>
<em> </em></div>
<div>
<em> </em></div>
<div>
<em> </em></div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/"><em>www.assetdyne.com</em></a></div>
<div>
<em> </em></div>
<div>
<em> </em></div>
<div>
<em> </em></div>
</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-26420678433553445572014-02-23T13:12:00.001+01:002014-02-24T20:05:30.809+01:00WEF 2013 Report on Global Risks: A Different View<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf6bpo6G8BRqItwoZrqtQK8J3Z7i_IM7hjFNi-wXEBX1_iLDrveg6EJn_CYkSPKa_71IR7PFBy7NF2x2-EPY6r3ksc0U3RK_5mPUVa4xoQPpVoxuoJqwMYdsZmEBMXJH7Nf34JXbIQFi1B/s1600/bigstock-The-World-Is-Mine--Back-Versi-559220.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf6bpo6G8BRqItwoZrqtQK8J3Z7i_IM7hjFNi-wXEBX1_iLDrveg6EJn_CYkSPKa_71IR7PFBy7NF2x2-EPY6r3ksc0U3RK_5mPUVa4xoQPpVoxuoJqwMYdsZmEBMXJH7Nf34JXbIQFi1B/s1600/bigstock-The-World-Is-Mine--Back-Versi-559220.jpg" height="358" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The World Economic Forum 2013 report (available <a href="http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-2013-eighth-edition">here</a>) discusses a wide variety of global risks, their likelihood and potential impact. Risk, however, is a problematic concept. It is not related to any physical quantity and does not follow any laws of physics. It is a highly subjective entity based on another, even more slippery idea, of probability. The most popular definition of risk is this:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Risk = Probability of an event X Consequences</span></div>
<br />
The problem with this definition is twofold:<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Probability is evaluated either based on <i>ensembles </i>of past events or simulations.<br /> </li>
<li>The consequences of an event are extremely difficult to estimate.</li>
</ul>
But even if we have a "perfect" value of probability, its meaning is still difficult to grasp. Imagine two events, A and B. Imagine that the probability of occurring of A is 80%, that of B is 70%. What does that mean? What does it <i>really </i>mean? Does it mean that A will occur before B? Does it mean that the consequences of A will be more severe than that of B? Absolutely not. In actual fact, nobody knows what it means. A probability doesn't give any clue of when, why and with what consequences an event will happen. Bertrand Russel said in 1927:<br />
<br />
"Probability is amongst the most important science, not least because no one understands it"<br />
<br />
As to consequences of adverse events the situation is similar. Suppose there will be flooding in a certain country next Autumn due to heavy rain. Suppose we know it will happen, so the probability is 100%. What will the consequences be? How many homes will be lost? For how long will the territory be without electricity? How many families will need to be relocated? Ten thousand, fifty thousand, half a million? Depends. It depends on so many factors that any guess is as good as any other guess. So, what is the risk? A billion, two billion? How do you make contingency plans for risks which have unknown consequences and which occur with a probability that is, fundamentally, a concept that is not understood? How well these contingency plans work is obvious. Every time we witness, for example, natural disasters or humanitarian crises, the keywords are impotence, inefficiency, slow response, angered populations, etc. So much for modern Risk Management.<br />
<br />
The WEF produces interesting maps of potential risks, such as this one:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkaC3stERn7yNZ5rW-IjyDDwttq_Mkin3RTwftnlzCjA4Kq9DacVbnXdcI8uSyB3YNGbQz5DSSN9-XEBriUocj3EHdFy3PUgSjXTy_Q2x-JJNzEBZxARySO-R0hi4Esqa9cJPyF9Pgo7XN/s1600/Risks-chart.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkaC3stERn7yNZ5rW-IjyDDwttq_Mkin3RTwftnlzCjA4Kq9DacVbnXdcI8uSyB3YNGbQz5DSSN9-XEBriUocj3EHdFy3PUgSjXTy_Q2x-JJNzEBZxARySO-R0hi4Esqa9cJPyF9Pgo7XN/s1600/Risks-chart.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="left: -99999px; position: absolute;">
"Probability is amongst the most important science, not least because no one understands it".<br />
<br />
Read more: http://www.physicsforums.com </div>
As the WEF report says, "The <a href="http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2013" target="_blank"><i>Global Risks Report 2013</i></a> analyses
50 global risks in terms of impact, likelihood and interconnections,
based on a survey of over 1000 experts from industry, government and
academia". In other words, the maps are based on subjective views of individuals who are experts in their respective fields, who use their own established models of analysis, simulation, etc. Clearly, subjective opinions lead to subjective results and conclusions.<br />
<br />
A different approach is to adopt an objective <i>model-free</i> Quantitative Complexity Analysis, using real, objective data from sources such as CIA World Fact Book or the World Bank. Processing such data provides something like this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKV9fvgpdsx2sax_CzxhNAt-EC-WFTjnaX5h3lUKD18nplRGJLgwaFWDj1cU9TvwJszgdZZhcZZENKSP75H3bykipUOz29ncIMxcnPDciidwIWi2NBi-LZmElKSzYoymVlBhX0l3EGrqZE/s1600/ScreenHunter_648+Feb.+23+12.05.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKV9fvgpdsx2sax_CzxhNAt-EC-WFTjnaX5h3lUKD18nplRGJLgwaFWDj1cU9TvwJszgdZZhcZZENKSP75H3bykipUOz29ncIMxcnPDciidwIWi2NBi-LZmElKSzYoymVlBhX0l3EGrqZE/s1600/ScreenHunter_648+Feb.+23+12.05.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
The above is a Complexity Map, and relates the various parameters (risks/events) to each other in an easy to grasp and analyze format. In fact, the maps is also interactive and may be navigated dynamically. Understanding the various relationships and dependencies between parameters is key towards understanding how the underlying system really works. This is what structure is all about. Knowledge. No structure, no knowledge, just sparse conclusions.<br />
<br />
However, the most important result is the actual measure of resilience/robustness of the system (as well as its complexity). In the above case we're talking of just over 50%, a mere two stars. The curious thing is that this measure is very much in line with the resilience of the economy, which today is between 50 and 60% - in other words, <i>very fragile</i>.<br />
<br />
An equally important result of a Quantitative Complexity Analysis is the ranking of each of the parameters/risks in terms of their footprint (i.e. objective weight) on the system as a whole. In the case in question it looks like this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvBAHavW61-y38QnUtCEiHzSs0HgzWoX69u6d2C96DTZtD5y-5UhB0e-r8ryYwXafTisHUG5ej4WLNBt7JEdhAEhVKVDnBg70ipsFo1rbgzjsiH76SgcEea6Src5H8pLOsIgC9bMilEuT2/s1600/ScreenHunter_645+Feb.+23+12.00.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvBAHavW61-y38QnUtCEiHzSs0HgzWoX69u6d2C96DTZtD5y-5UhB0e-r8ryYwXafTisHUG5ej4WLNBt7JEdhAEhVKVDnBg70ipsFo1rbgzjsiH76SgcEea6Src5H8pLOsIgC9bMilEuT2/s1600/ScreenHunter_645+Feb.+23+12.00.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
In other words, the ranking of parameters is not based on subjective opinions and surveys, it is not based on statistical or math models, it is based on <i>real and raw data</i>.<br />
<br />
Our objective is not analyze in detail Global Risks. What we wish to point out is that when things get really complex, a thousand experts can deliver a thousand opinions, all of which may seem credible and fit the real picture.<br />
<br />
The words "resilience", "complexity", "systemic risks", "systems thinking" are increasingly popular. There are numerous studies and publications on these subjects. This is good. See, for example, the WEF's <a href="http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2013/section-three/special-report-building-national-resilience-to-global-risks/">page</a> on national resilience. However, what these studies have in common is lack of a quantitative perspective. Complex? How complex? Resilient? How resilient? 10%, 30%. If we don't incorporate a quantitative dimension into these analyses, which are unquestionably valuable, they will inevitably remain in the sphere of subjectivity.<br />
<br />
Let us recall the Principle of Fragility, coined by Ontonix in 2005:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Complexity X Uncertainty = Fragility</span></div>
<br />
While we have often applied the principle to businesses and business processes, it can also be applied to the analysis of Global Risks. Clearly, we are facing a highly Complex situation. The problem at hand <i>is</i> very complex. We also agree on the fact that every expert has his own opinion. As we have said, a highly complex scenario may be interpreted in a plethora of ways. Depending on which expert we talk to, the answer will be different. So, the choice of experts is crucial. Combining, therefore, the complexity of the underlying problem, with the uncertainty originating from a multitude of different and subjective opinions, what we obtain ultimately is a fragile result. Handle with care.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ontonix.com/">www.ontonix.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="left: -99999px; position: absolute;">
"Probability is amongst the most important science, not least because no one understands it"<br />
<br />
Read more: http://www.physicsforums.com </div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-26045555973386505782014-02-10T14:30:00.000+01:002014-02-10T14:30:04.635+01:00Solving Extreme Problems.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinepAwBHx5A2ebmto8IvSFXY2PKWoDxNW-iZaET3zNpqwqqBdaRvnbQz2jaiJaGkQNKjShy-oUSA4YXCu1c_NPIisiyFZ6x_V8azm7fG0ajbnq8EU_w0XRvXh9C3VQJlvtoczmEpQGFeBB/s1600/space_junk.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinepAwBHx5A2ebmto8IvSFXY2PKWoDxNW-iZaET3zNpqwqqBdaRvnbQz2jaiJaGkQNKjShy-oUSA4YXCu1c_NPIisiyFZ6x_V8azm7fG0ajbnq8EU_w0XRvXh9C3VQJlvtoczmEpQGFeBB/s1600/space_junk.jpg" height="400" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Extreme problems are very large-scale multi-disciplinary problems,
involving thousands of variables and which cannot be solved using
conventional technology. In such situations, it is impossible to
determine the cause of the problem not only because of its sheer size
but, most importantly, because it is frequently perceived through
conventional eyes and distorted by narrow and linear thinking. It is not
a matter of compute power or sophisticated math modelling - some things
just cannot be modelled. <br /><br />Examples of extreme problems:<br /><br />
<ul>
<li>Unexpected
collapses of critical systems or infrastructures (markets,
transportation systems, IT networks, large corporations, etc.)</li>
<li>Prolonged
states of crisis, inefficiency or frequent system failures (process
plants, transportation systems, economies, telephone networks, etc.)</li>
<li>Sudden catastrophic collapse (spacecraft, aircraft, software systems, ecosystems, etc.)</li>
</ul>
<br /><br />Clearly, extreme problems cause extreme consequences and losses.<br /><br />When
it comes to man-made systems, bad design is often the cause. The
inability of conventional science to embrace the systems perspective of
things on the one hand, and neglecting their complexity on the other
provide an efficient barrier to solving extreme problems.<br /><br />Because
in the majority of cases it is excessive and uncontrolled complexity
that leads to severe consequences and extreme problems, Ontonix attacks
them with its patented model-free Quantitative Complexity Management
technology. In collaboration with supercomputer centers, Ontonix
provides radically innovative means of formulating and solving extreme
problems. We actually measure complexity, identify its sources,
performing multi-level Complexity Profiling of systems and sub-systems
until a solution is found. In huge and complex systems things often go
wrong not because some parameters have the wrong value but because of
the countless interactions that may develop. The higher the complexity,
the more of such interactions may emerge. What this means is that thanks
to high complexity the system in question possesses a marked capacity of
producing surprises. <br /><br />Extreme problems not only pose new
challenges. They also stimulate innovative business models. In fact,
when Ontonix takes on an extreme problem, the following scheme is
followed:<br /><br /><ul>
<li>The client and Ontonix analyze the problem together.</li>
<li>The consequences and losses incurred by the client are quantified.</li>
<li>As much data about the problem is gathered as possible.</li>
<li>Ontonix employs its best efforts to solve the problem.</li>
<li>In case of loss reduction/elimination, a percentage of the client´s gains are paid to Ontonix.</li>
</ul>
<br /><br /><br /><br />For more information <a href="mailto:info@ontonix.com">e-mail</a> us.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ontonix.com/">www.ontonix.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-22478852347686880912014-01-24T21:21:00.005+01:002014-01-24T21:22:42.960+01:00Health of the EU Economy - Stagnation or Recovery?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2F-DWdZ7edoeIktGFeqEpUAklCMEjo11uH_xVEECTFcVIhRwFyMQzCd2C0NBZNsTbAaSEDyCY7yUW5sA9sGI3CKjiLNKcj1mvVX9KbHtFWe4iZoU-h9bhIv9dNAvDi3RH8N8zlG7q6dNL/s1600/europa-euro-simbolo-fotolia-672_298x156.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2F-DWdZ7edoeIktGFeqEpUAklCMEjo11uH_xVEECTFcVIhRwFyMQzCd2C0NBZNsTbAaSEDyCY7yUW5sA9sGI3CKjiLNKcj1mvVX9KbHtFWe4iZoU-h9bhIv9dNAvDi3RH8N8zlG7q6dNL/s1600/europa-euro-simbolo-fotolia-672_298x156.jpg" height="334" width="640" /> </a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Our quarterly analysis of Eurostat's macroeconomic data of the Eurozone for Q3 2013 has now been completed and published. The interactive Business Structure Maps of each member state may be navigated <a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/Examples/">here</a>.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Italy, together with the UK, Sweden and France have the highest resilience (approximately 80%), while Belgium, Ireland, and Spain score a low 60%.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
It is interesting to note that when it comes to the entire region, there are clear indications of a slow but consistent recovery. The evolution of complexity (its increase) in the plot belows shows that clearly.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnQR_nA4uWSrWPBknHMvT1bof9NICixLxrRQxkpFtIJ7Qq_aCJyy9_ln7aEounR3wnhgGeWCA0jnkfgFjgqFoqa-tiwLeu9AuACYN-u-l3daxFSsbp60EDlmV-UMNgB_TRsrA8VraYB6tw/s1600/C_EU28Q32013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnQR_nA4uWSrWPBknHMvT1bof9NICixLxrRQxkpFtIJ7Qq_aCJyy9_ln7aEounR3wnhgGeWCA0jnkfgFjgqFoqa-tiwLeu9AuACYN-u-l3daxFSsbp60EDlmV-UMNgB_TRsrA8VraYB6tw/s1600/C_EU28Q32013.jpg" height="404" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
However, complexity remains dangerously close to critical complexity, denoting alarmingly high fragility. This means that the system is very much exposed and incapable of dealing with intense shocks, financial contagion or extreme events. Nevertheless, it is also evident how, based on the available data, we have hit the bottom around Q4 2011, i.e. approximately two years ago. As of today, the situation in terms of complexity is comparable to that of Q3 2010. In essence, overall situation of the Eurozone has not evolved over the last three years. This is in line with an evident lack of reforms and lack leadership at both EU and country level.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The evolution of resilience follows a similar trend and, although it is still alarmingly low.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipr3hv8dbhg_xbk5-2B5ySIULE40WHH_05cfm5-zDJwrmTdB0eW4omCSUC5rbU_0WtK9CbbcWQ_tgAPfmZhdW6_IahnVTqKdVu6eG-fLlbVcz-0JHTx4boKKEESIO8k0SjpWr8zAAMsYr1/s1600/R_EU28Q32013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipr3hv8dbhg_xbk5-2B5ySIULE40WHH_05cfm5-zDJwrmTdB0eW4omCSUC5rbU_0WtK9CbbcWQ_tgAPfmZhdW6_IahnVTqKdVu6eG-fLlbVcz-0JHTx4boKKEESIO8k0SjpWr8zAAMsYr1/s1600/R_EU28Q32013.jpg" height="400" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br />
Finally, it is interesting to notice how in terms of recovery the 15 core Eurozone states are outpacing the 13 new member states.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhInQ3edhzvFP0zYcAyPSGxb3ZeK_qAPKVhe4XAeXiDKM2NsyTfC75aA2tPR5FeCJPb1wEGw8T7Vx59CqBezaBJhgHZN7hii6Vfq4GfZ-Z3pxS1rv3H8F9NsdXLJ94ZNW2i83qOA9LD1Mn7/s1600/EU15_EU13_Q32013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhInQ3edhzvFP0zYcAyPSGxb3ZeK_qAPKVhe4XAeXiDKM2NsyTfC75aA2tPR5FeCJPb1wEGw8T7Vx59CqBezaBJhgHZN7hii6Vfq4GfZ-Z3pxS1rv3H8F9NsdXLJ94ZNW2i83qOA9LD1Mn7/s1600/EU15_EU13_Q32013.jpg" height="408" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
While the crisis peaked in Western Europe in Q4 2007, it climaxed approximately one year later in Central and Eastern Europe. In terms of recovery things are different. While the EU15 group touched the bottom in Q1 2011, the EU13 did so in Q3 2012, i.e. 18 months later. What is also clear is that the complexity gradient (higher complexity means a more lively economy) in the case of the EU13 group is substantially lower than that of the EU15. This means that, based on the currently available data, recovery in Central and Eastern Europe will be significantly slower.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ontonix.com/">www.ontonix.com</a> <a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/"> www.rate-a-business.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-20501613555577746312014-01-23T00:26:00.000+01:002014-02-01T17:14:34.736+01:00Creating Fragile Monsters and When Failure Is An Option<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA40CW36WTmJ4c5PALN45E2lfxrbMphzifc2vwwGkM24I8mKjls1AHXdTHxvcpZ9fFQ1xzGWJuRwMT8qgS-FKYdu6D9TVC4g5Dmi0rKkgml__y7nbSB5wO-CqpUQCsWG3yRz862YQ0rH8X/s1600/bigstock-Globe-20721167.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA40CW36WTmJ4c5PALN45E2lfxrbMphzifc2vwwGkM24I8mKjls1AHXdTHxvcpZ9fFQ1xzGWJuRwMT8qgS-FKYdu6D9TVC4g5Dmi0rKkgml__y7nbSB5wO-CqpUQCsWG3yRz862YQ0rH8X/s1600/bigstock-Globe-20721167.jpg" height="640" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Imagine the World as one big corporation, offering all sorts of products and services. If one observes the World, and recognises that most (if not all) things tend states of greater chaos and fragmentation, it may be difficult to reconcile both images. For example, the number of countries, is increasing. Look what happened to Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia or the Soviet Union. Belgium and Spain will probably be next. Even the European Union itself is being questioned by growing numbers of its disillusioned citizens. The bottom line is that number of players is increasing, their demands and conflicting interests are going to be very difficult to deal with. There are centrifugal forces everywhere. Well, almost everywhere. In fact, as countries and societies tend to break up, there is an equally clear trend in the opposite direction in the corporate world. Consolidations are creating super-huge conglomerates of corporations and super-banks. <span class="st"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="st"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="st">Let's look at consolidation in the US over the last two decades. First the media industry.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjebuqY8mRT0xlvptLYTvICGxF2hUSiHuW-SnlXF50C_uZsODUWxfaJ89s1Pj2X9DG9372_3acgSJ2hqJUrQEyxEbyQbMX4ySWvC-6SDjae-ESbEE-PlTSd9cvBFhJLBsu1tSXIJbrDpAB7/s1600/A1.jpg" height="640" width="625" /><br />
<br />
<br />
And the banking industry.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguj9bG-wOzd0SdAcj9oT4mT21lPAIUtIEoOKG-OtVDkBP_yt2XMeG4s61GRH_ArhRsaQqtoVcSpIEo-fE0FZz94b7xSHBA_C5eEnNc8gqILFroBx7wFhuL9MGI-OtWggEHjqwxaXIZXlMb/s1600/A2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguj9bG-wOzd0SdAcj9oT4mT21lPAIUtIEoOKG-OtVDkBP_yt2XMeG4s61GRH_ArhRsaQqtoVcSpIEo-fE0FZz94b7xSHBA_C5eEnNc8gqILFroBx7wFhuL9MGI-OtWggEHjqwxaXIZXlMb/s1600/A2.jpg" height="412" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
Such super-huge companies have been named as "Too Big To Fail" by Stewart McKinney when he <span class="st"> served on the Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Committee in 1984. He was wrong. Super-huge companies and banks <i>have </i>failed and without early warning. Size, in this case, doesn't matter. The problem, in fact, is not so much size as complexity. Excessive complexity to be precise. The new paradigm is "Too Complex To Survive". The enemy is excessive complexity. And why? </span><br />
<span class="st"><br /></span>
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span class="st">Highly complex systems are intrinsically hazardous systems.</span></li>
</ul>
<span class="st"></span><br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span class="st"><span class="st">Highly c</span>omplex systems run in degraded mode.</span></li>
</ul>
<span class="st"></span><br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span class="st">Catastrophe is always just around the corner.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span class="st"></span><br />
If we allow this mega-monster corporation to emerge, we need to be well aware of the three keywords appearing above: <i>hazardous, degraded, catastrophe</i>. Is this the world we want?<br />
<br />
<br />
Today, complexity can be measured and managed. It is a fundamental and strategic Key Performance Indicator of any modern business. Ontonix is the first and only company to measure and manage complexity. Rationaly. Serious science starts when you begin to measure.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ontonix.com/">www.ontonix.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-24579982421917876252014-01-21T01:32:00.001+01:002014-01-21T01:32:52.485+01:00Just How Good Are Minimum-Complexity Portfolios?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCQ7W-wIqEVOVVmHFr7lPIX3srAYwDBjQFO1zOAHC3bumieu-St7guUEKVYnnHjBnFGHlDXL44D3P5gBfRb1VLOBZ13npwboFxkLB9dqIUYSg5F7AeI-rNX0krItFvN7ComQ68nM4Hmals/s1600/bigstockphoto_Mountaineer_at_the_top_of_the__761381.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCQ7W-wIqEVOVVmHFr7lPIX3srAYwDBjQFO1zOAHC3bumieu-St7guUEKVYnnHjBnFGHlDXL44D3P5gBfRb1VLOBZ13npwboFxkLB9dqIUYSg5F7AeI-rNX0krItFvN7ComQ68nM4Hmals/s1600/bigstockphoto_Mountaineer_at_the_top_of_the__761381.jpg" height="427" width="640" /> </a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
In order to showcase the performance of minimum-complexity portfolios versus highly complex ones, two such portfolios have been built with stocks from the Dow Jones Index. A nasty period, which included the Internet Bubble, has been chosen: 2000-2004. We confronted the performance of both portfolios with that of the index itself. This has been done in four distinct periods.Here are the results.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ_a9mxTm27lUUHLnhkc8FDILFtHbD7h6oA-FdCKa3t22wWDiRJZy9ktw1SK9orea4oHo1r6dNPe2gLeub3bdoeCpaqTBwoNJ8SamE4OgzdQYWevEJnFOd5lg7lH-VjDTXc4zWKcHT2aWs/s1600/MIN_C.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ_a9mxTm27lUUHLnhkc8FDILFtHbD7h6oA-FdCKa3t22wWDiRJZy9ktw1SK9orea4oHo1r6dNPe2gLeub3bdoeCpaqTBwoNJ8SamE4OgzdQYWevEJnFOd5lg7lH-VjDTXc4zWKcHT2aWs/s1600/MIN_C.jpg" height="321" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
In terms of numbers we have the following results:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVflmY5U5pqjKcStvBKdDXgDoS6O52aD8jl7v_U5m5ZHUdHLuXx_vkCpJBffRd9J2upalON3AZqQytq4pJ-DtPFnh9ZTPFEQSd4z930f6N5K_Klp66SNtWwz-JhQrO04d5aO-y6wfQKC53/s1600/MIN_C_perf.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVflmY5U5pqjKcStvBKdDXgDoS6O52aD8jl7v_U5m5ZHUdHLuXx_vkCpJBffRd9J2upalON3AZqQytq4pJ-DtPFnh9ZTPFEQSd4z930f6N5K_Klp66SNtWwz-JhQrO04d5aO-y6wfQKC53/s1600/MIN_C_perf.jpg" height="400" width="225" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
While the Dow has reported a total loss of 4.2% during the entire 4-year period, the high-complexity portfolio produced gains of 6.3% and the low-complexity one an impressive 24.1%. In turbulence, simpler is better.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Minimum-complexity portfolios may be obtained at <a href="http://www.assetdynex.com/">www.assetdynex.com</a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">www.assetdyne.com</a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-84418347490299202872014-01-12T16:39:00.002+01:002014-01-12T16:51:56.614+01:00Just How Healthy is the US Economy?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi08bMWurMMEPgLxzGYdQ5y4k2mCgYdPvl35d7vHH5qP_3abBiU-NYLECsRKSPc5slw7wDidhiCaityjtSjCYXtNZ_Zsb54EN-AoksMJAJF-Tp3WqPiljP7DoFlqjNOorWokCvNGYALok_J/s1600/bigstock-Copier-Printing-Cash--4610500.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi08bMWurMMEPgLxzGYdQ5y4k2mCgYdPvl35d7vHH5qP_3abBiU-NYLECsRKSPc5slw7wDidhiCaityjtSjCYXtNZ_Zsb54EN-AoksMJAJF-Tp3WqPiljP7DoFlqjNOorWokCvNGYALok_J/s1600/bigstock-Copier-Printing-Cash--4610500.jpg" height="482" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
We know that 2013 has been a great year for stock markets, US markets in particular. People are openly talking of "stock market recovery". We also know that the FED has been pumping paper into the system. But what has this <i>really </i>done to the economy, apart from increasing the values of market indices?<br />
<br />
Since Nature offers no free lunch (the economy probably doesn't either) printing money must have its consequence. If you make markets rally based on steroids you inevitably end up paying for it somewhere. We claim that such policies create fragility. Hidden fragility. Well, hidden to conventional pre-crisis analytics technology and to those that are concerned with numbers and numbers alone.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">Assetdyne</a> analyzes the major US markets every two weeks and publishes the results <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/Major-US-Markets.htm">here</a>. The focus of the analyses is resilience - the capacity to resist impacts, shocks, contagion, extreme events and, ultimately, sustained turbulence. The results are far from exciting, revealing mediocre levels of resilience. Here they are:<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>NASDAQ 100 - NDX</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2D0ey4K-Nkz9zcf6W6Zweg6twbnWQSxvxqPRMiU95Yf5LpX6FIk-p0IitwBeNrKcnGTn0oi1_ZzIUiOEw9JYCtVAkPcvmHN1NVAC4s2LIUNha4H6C_-cOK2APHXBIlXqASRo2O_ZYF-6l/s1600/NASDAQ100.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2D0ey4K-Nkz9zcf6W6Zweg6twbnWQSxvxqPRMiU95Yf5LpX6FIk-p0IitwBeNrKcnGTn0oi1_ZzIUiOEw9JYCtVAkPcvmHN1NVAC4s2LIUNha4H6C_-cOK2APHXBIlXqASRo2O_ZYF-6l/s1600/NASDAQ100.jpg" height="136" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>S&P 100 - OEX</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu97OPxy70chayLtOf5AOK-JLnGnGTYK6WH-Z9CJCDJUhyphenhyphenRDwnrmSkJK_hc8X2lHdLiZrkS0IO7KkJJtqNQFX8YG0jCOOLSpsK2Thq__KtAnRkfxKK4ULFNDB9Vtf7A-XydlpuXg-0cfOi/s1600/OEX.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu97OPxy70chayLtOf5AOK-JLnGnGTYK6WH-Z9CJCDJUhyphenhyphenRDwnrmSkJK_hc8X2lHdLiZrkS0IO7KkJJtqNQFX8YG0jCOOLSpsK2Thq__KtAnRkfxKK4ULFNDB9Vtf7A-XydlpuXg-0cfOi/s1600/OEX.jpg" height="132" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Dow Jones Composite Average - DJA</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT71QwgjfY-QOq1xBfA_Ub1DaW9PNmkrb-ghBPaJW5LHX0McTdQW2LtGD54BS5VZuI1W-Ba2p3eZYy4renztwPanJct32irWNMBhbW5od3YCkAHlYmR6L5GXKkBiVWyuwWBM0uoSqtyBRt/s1600/DJA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT71QwgjfY-QOq1xBfA_Ub1DaW9PNmkrb-ghBPaJW5LHX0McTdQW2LtGD54BS5VZuI1W-Ba2p3eZYy4renztwPanJct32irWNMBhbW5od3YCkAHlYmR6L5GXKkBiVWyuwWBM0uoSqtyBRt/s1600/DJA.jpg" height="132" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average - DJI</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbZ_t2-_J9SoKOsNthCJ6XJmkn0RyeqZojqnY-0fm_tVT2ichTkspJ5PXH0yCx17jLsohti97iVobZzT4-nZs5VmQMLFXegBfIw-0ZRjefPiP6gFTCa7xIyjVM-MdH-PV6BF8OSy8ZXUWf/s1600/DJI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbZ_t2-_J9SoKOsNthCJ6XJmkn0RyeqZojqnY-0fm_tVT2ichTkspJ5PXH0yCx17jLsohti97iVobZzT4-nZs5VmQMLFXegBfIw-0ZRjefPiP6gFTCa7xIyjVM-MdH-PV6BF8OSy8ZXUWf/s1600/DJI.jpg" height="134" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>PHLX Semiconductor - SOX</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxOCTKPbMRzmp4ZeM4ELREkFKKEpZjGtqgoUNx0BPU2NFFcshT2q_Qs7V-gqAQSrjOCacUT8MwBXWtgxGpSYNMKR0MS3W8uxE9GXS9_b8lmKL9QvkjZoJ9Jgbfmgv9h0B2_7jKNtjDsoKr/s1600/SOX.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxOCTKPbMRzmp4ZeM4ELREkFKKEpZjGtqgoUNx0BPU2NFFcshT2q_Qs7V-gqAQSrjOCacUT8MwBXWtgxGpSYNMKR0MS3W8uxE9GXS9_b8lmKL9QvkjZoJ9Jgbfmgv9h0B2_7jKNtjDsoKr/s1600/SOX.jpg" height="132" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
A two to three-star resilience rating. Nothing to celebrate. The S&P 100, in particular, has an alarming two-star (64%) rating. We leave the comments to the readers.<br />
<br />
Navigate Interactive Complexity Maps of the indices <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/Major-US-Markets.htm">here</a>. Just click on an index and move the mouse. More soon.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">www.assetdyne.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-36711545879607843872014-01-06T16:27:00.000+01:002014-01-06T16:27:01.340+01:00Complexity Science Helps in Early-detection of Fibrillations and Tachyarrhythmia<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP38MwYHAiG9HXe3LQ4qIsacerNnw_VusRFYXau0xdvwpMJ7cepvNvaeqBnYSmj15l8E56felDVgAvBuyj8QT844JUqarXPW9G6C3otemIJeX9shO2dbghrZHAO7rRteX8Jvj5yiPoCQAd/s1600/EGM_VT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP38MwYHAiG9HXe3LQ4qIsacerNnw_VusRFYXau0xdvwpMJ7cepvNvaeqBnYSmj15l8E56felDVgAvBuyj8QT844JUqarXPW9G6C3otemIJeX9shO2dbghrZHAO7rRteX8Jvj5yiPoCQAd/s1600/EGM_VT.jpg" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The main goal of ONTONET-CRT™ is to reduce detection times as well as unnecessary ICD shocks. ONTONET-CRT™ adopts new model-free technology which does not rely on traditional math models. Instead of conventional analysis ONTONET-CRT™ processes the EGM and computes its complexity. Its sudden fluctuations generally anticipate events such as fibrillations or tachycardias. <br /><br />ONTONET-CRT™ processing of EGM data indicates that fluctuations of complexity generally precede tachycardias or fibrillations. This means that it is possible to gain precious time in properly detecting and classifying the event and even preventing it altogether. <br /><br />Analyses of EGMs shows that in over 80% of the cases ONTONET-CRT™ is able to anticipate commencement of tachycardias and fibrillations by a significant number of heart beats. This opens news avenues in terms of dealing with these events even before they commence.<br />
<br />
Below is an example of how a sudden increase in complexity precedes a Ventricular Tachycardia.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBYALCHGK5ruIh-QAt8V4PF3VrRS_bfrmGGPak85hCP0XoauqSOqoVSijjApp7rRLryyJ97b6W9Jxz1IscuBC-quryzT3_iO3f17aS4EZj_-l428NIgiK72VhvLiZKyWDBHfswJkq6sI2L/s1600/VT_C.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBYALCHGK5ruIh-QAt8V4PF3VrRS_bfrmGGPak85hCP0XoauqSOqoVSijjApp7rRLryyJ97b6W9Jxz1IscuBC-quryzT3_iO3f17aS4EZj_-l428NIgiK72VhvLiZKyWDBHfswJkq6sI2L/s1600/VT_C.jpg" height="391" width="640" /> </a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Read more <a href="http://www.ontomeds.com/Anticipating-Fibrillations-and-Tachyarrhythmias.htm">here</a>. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.ontomeds.com/">www.ontomeds.com</a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-20112124070915320742014-01-05T21:29:00.002+01:002014-01-05T21:29:57.904+01:00Casino Capitalism: Legitimizing the Derivatives Soup. <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<pre></pre>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT7uXail6fokd4xl-LQg5-7BLtcPv2z7B3KiL0HP5K_fgyZM-n90j94TcE2nlaHLpQD8-USIOjf73CEDHJrjIxYL5yTnzjLqjW5wnjJnKXJOU3UiPnAokBk9EyPn-RHI4LoAMdugMiQqr0/s1600/CasinoEconomy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT7uXail6fokd4xl-LQg5-7BLtcPv2z7B3KiL0HP5K_fgyZM-n90j94TcE2nlaHLpQD8-USIOjf73CEDHJrjIxYL5yTnzjLqjW5wnjJnKXJOU3UiPnAokBk9EyPn-RHI4LoAMdugMiQqr0/s640/CasinoEconomy.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
In 2000, the Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA) passed, legitimizing swap agreements and other hybrid instruments, a massive move towards deregulation and ending regulatory oversight of derivatives and leveraging that turned Wall Street more than ever into a casino. At the same time the first Internet-based commodities transaction system was created to let companies trade energy and other commodity futures unregulated, effectively licensing pillage and fraud. (Enron took full <br />
advantage of this until it all imploded.) Further, it launched a menu of options, binary options, forwards, swaps, warrants, leaps, baskets, swaptions, and unregulated credit derivatives like the now infamous credit default swaps, facilitating out-of-control speculation. <br />
<br />
This deregulatory madness caused unprecedented fraud, insider trading, misrepresentation, Ponzi schemes, false accounting, obscenely high salaries and bonuses, bilking investors, customers and homeowners, as well as embezzling and other forms of theft, including loans designed to fail, clear conflicts of interest, lax enforcement of remaining regulatory measures, market manipulation and fraudulent financial products and massive public deception.<br />
<br />
This slicing and dicing of risk-reducing derivative securities is still going on, creating a time bomb waiting to explode with catastrophic consequences. According to the latest BIS statistics on OTC derivatives markets there was a whopping $693 trillion outstanding at the end of June 2013. That is more than 10 times the GDP of the entire world and equivalent to $100,000 for each of the 7 billion inhabitants of our planet. <br />
<br />
The complexity and high potential risk associated with derivatives requires innovative risk assessment procedures and strong technical knowledge. There are tools to measure and monitor complexity of these financial products. One can be found <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">here</a>.<br />
<br />
With this innovative tool you can classify, rank and rate the complexity and resilience of derivatives, and establish maximum allowable levels of complexity and minimum allowable resilience. Products with low resilience contribute to making the system (economy) more fragile. Once the most complex (dangerous) derivatives have been identified, they should be withdrawn progressively from circulation. <br />
<br />
<br />
Submitted by <a href="mailto:hans@assetdyne.com">Hans van Hoek</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">www.assetdyne.com</a><br />
<pre> </pre>
<br />
<pre> </pre>
<pre> </pre>
<pre> </pre>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-60293234934850556332014-01-04T17:21:00.002+01:002014-01-04T17:21:59.954+01:00NASDAQ 100 Resilience Rating Analysis - January 2014, (1/2)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih4-yr-W_oYV0B1kD7vwCH8GVGQjlzLVT36Kg7qCB_hnAzzNDuef86qaMZhujUA-VtFgWSN8V6XFdLBb1XdWO0y6LGBalCNkrfvWxPpOA8txYEgVUo3ljaiM4Z6FZXASzJHez03N-fQtRq/s1600/marketsite5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="425" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih4-yr-W_oYV0B1kD7vwCH8GVGQjlzLVT36Kg7qCB_hnAzzNDuef86qaMZhujUA-VtFgWSN8V6XFdLBb1XdWO0y6LGBalCNkrfvWxPpOA8txYEgVUo3ljaiM4Z6FZXASzJHez03N-fQtRq/s640/marketsite5.jpg" width="640" /> </a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
The first of two fortnightly NASDAQ 100 Resilience Rating Analysis reports in January 2014 is now available for downloading <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/NASDAQ-100-Report-January-4-th-2014.htm">here</a>. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
The second January 2014 report shall be available after January 15-th.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
The NASDAQ 100 Resilience Rating Analysis provides a ranking of the 100 stocks composing the index based on stock complexity and resilience. The report is offered free of charge.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
Reports can be generated on a daily basis or in real-time. For more information <a href="mailto:info@assetdyne.com">contact</a> us. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">www.assetdyne.com</a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-53538753466544835912014-01-04T16:30:00.001+01:002014-01-04T16:30:09.348+01:00Which is the Most Reliable and Trustworthy Rating Agency?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRs7xytWgbWsh-A1Q9up_1hmfl8Xi7EoAn7K3SFpPldLM4lU9CdRSYO5eqnwRxZGLna45v59C0Bn-uQAbfzD2iHA_5_lQFwQNg5UUHWFJNZ8aJa2tWDHB5fkH-12-zBQCvka94-EIgrway/s1600/World_CRA_Investors.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRs7xytWgbWsh-A1Q9up_1hmfl8Xi7EoAn7K3SFpPldLM4lU9CdRSYO5eqnwRxZGLna45v59C0Bn-uQAbfzD2iHA_5_lQFwQNg5UUHWFJNZ8aJa2tWDHB5fkH-12-zBQCvka94-EIgrway/s640/World_CRA_Investors.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
One can <i>never </i>really trust a third party 100%. A lot has been written about the unreliability, lack of transparency and conflicts of interest of the Big Three Credit Rating Agencies. And yet, the entire economy uses and depends on ratings. It's a bit like those who smoke knowing that smoking causes cancer. <br />
<br />
Even though the rating agencies have been said to be the "key enablers of the financial meltdown" ratings are necessary. Sure, ratings are necessary but they must be reliable and trustworthy. Because nobody is really 100% transparent and 100% independent, the term "reliable rating agency" sounds like an oxymoron. A radically new approach is needed.<br />
<br />
The only person you trust 100% is yourself. So, if you want a 100% reliable rating, you must do it yourself. This is why we have built the "Rate-A-Business" <a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/index.php">platform</a>, so that <i>you </i>can rate any business <i>yourself</i>. This is how it works:<br />
<br />
<ol style="text-align: left;">
</ol>
1. If you want to rate a publicly listed company, you download its financials from its website and you process them at <a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/">www.rate-a-business.com</a><br /><br />2. If you want to rate your own business, you already have the financials. You use data you trust. You trust the result.<br />
<br />
<br />
In the first case we still have the problem of trusting the financials that public companies post on their Investor Relations pages. But, at least, the mechanism for rating those numbers which is used by Rate-A-Business remains the same. For everyone. All the time.<br />
<br />
Ratings must be <i>democratised</i>. This means they must be in the hands of those who use them. They must become a <i>commodity</i>. Not a means of deception. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ontonix.com/">www.ontonix.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<ol style="text-align: left;">
</ol>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-89861354132076741672014-01-02T15:09:00.001+01:002014-01-02T15:09:57.652+01:00Manipulation<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFWApnWnzHfwcE0iVMba2zsS2zqUV-dME-L1MR9wcuY5txFZ_WUvjK22w2bAqUJutFbIq9fo0D2iWnVbbE6iytPaSlDV5JUFWqQwgj4TVRozsw7l2Ab6y037NdK-Ez2X2LQE_kirUavdUa/s1600/Nightmare_On_Wall_Street.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFWApnWnzHfwcE0iVMba2zsS2zqUV-dME-L1MR9wcuY5txFZ_WUvjK22w2bAqUJutFbIq9fo0D2iWnVbbE6iytPaSlDV5JUFWqQwgj4TVRozsw7l2Ab6y037NdK-Ez2X2LQE_kirUavdUa/s640/Nightmare_On_Wall_Street.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Wall Street claims markets move randomly, reflecting the collective
wisdom of investors. The truth is quite opposite. The government’s
visible hand and insiders control them, manipulating them up or down for
profit—all of them, including stocks, bonds, commodities and
currencies. The public is none the wiser.<br />
<br />
It’s brazen financial fraud like the pump and dump practice, defined as
“artificially inflating the price of a stock or other security through
promotion, in order to sell at the inflated price, then profit more on
the downside by short-selling. This practice is illegal under securities
law, yet it is particularly common, and in today’s volatile markets
occurs daily to one degree or other. My career on Wall Street started
out like this, in the proverbial "boiler room."<br />
<br />
A company’s stock price and true worth can be highly divergent. In other
words, healthy or sick firms may be way over- or undervalued depending
on market and economic conditions and how manipulative traders wish to
price them, short or longer term. During a trading frenzy, a stock
price increases and so the capitalization of a company is suddenly more
then just a few minutes or hours before? What non sense that is!<br />
<br />The idea that equity prices reflect true value or that markets move
randomly (up or down) is nonsense. They never have and more than ever,
don’t now. It is therefore crucial to circumvent the regular analysis
hype, look at a company and find out the risk and complexity as a top
analysis tool. There is no manipulation here, the data gives the
company, stock or portfolio a face, and it is not a pokerface. The
system developed by Assetdyne allows users to compute the Resilience
Rating and Complexity of single stocks, stock portfolios, derivatives
and other financial products.<br />
<br />
Hans van Hoek<br />
Partner at Assetdyne <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">www.assetdyne.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-76312646648570196152013-12-29T15:31:00.004+01:002013-12-29T15:31:39.943+01:00NASDAQ 100 Resilience Rating Analysis<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKTb5w0pgTbHphS0caMhXuNHDFcWD20Sbp7aTdx62tTCai95Ea2IP_yzeqK548eghtM91U7dRHNA4BrhCrmC04Ytuks-0xb0ZCT7XOlLDnsR83Lu3szfTo9_OK0BAugjrIZ8hjTwWQYOi4/s1600/lg_Jive_NASDAQ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKTb5w0pgTbHphS0caMhXuNHDFcWD20Sbp7aTdx62tTCai95Ea2IP_yzeqK548eghtM91U7dRHNA4BrhCrmC04Ytuks-0xb0ZCT7XOlLDnsR83Lu3szfTo9_OK0BAugjrIZ8hjTwWQYOi4/s640/lg_Jive_NASDAQ.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
During 2014 Assetdyne shall be performing a Resilience Rating analysis of all of the NASDAQ 100 stocks. The report shall be offered free of charge and will be produced twice a month.<br />
<br />
In addition, Portfolio Complexity Maps shall be produced and made available for interactive navigation.<br />
<br />
The first report is available <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/documenti_scheda.php?iddocumento=9">here</a>.<br />
<br />
For more information on Assetdyne visit <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/index.php?c=3">website</a>.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">www.assetdyne.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-73091959217583843642013-12-28T15:47:00.000+01:002013-12-28T15:47:08.909+01:00Complexity and Battle Management<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil0BY-bqVNVebNtc8FrDnuNn7BZ7ppH6E4pR9aJT-gtmEvkJXKJ4en5FuBa6CsUxSJzFjnlCFo7oyJsLG1YKgPIoIzok5wiO7zYFvmbUJrkPgSEgYbTOvyPu8bNm8PlYiIstJocr3kLovj/s1600/Battle.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil0BY-bqVNVebNtc8FrDnuNn7BZ7ppH6E4pR9aJT-gtmEvkJXKJ4en5FuBa6CsUxSJzFjnlCFo7oyJsLG1YKgPIoIzok5wiO7zYFvmbUJrkPgSEgYbTOvyPu8bNm8PlYiIstJocr3kLovj/s640/Battle.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Modern battle scenarios involve a huge amount of data and information. According to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network-centric_warfare">Wikipedia</a>:<br />
<br />
<b>"Network-centric warfare</b>, also called <b>network-centric operations</b><sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network-centric_warfare#cite_note-1"><span></span><span></span></a></sup> or <b>net-centric warfare</b>, is a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_doctrine" title="Military doctrine">military doctrine</a> or theory of war pioneered by the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Defense" title="United States Department of Defense">United States Department of Defense</a> in the 1990s.<br />
It seeks to translate an information advantage, enabled in part by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_technology" title="Information technology">information technology</a>, into a competitive advantage through the robust networking of well informed geographically dispersed forces.<sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-2"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network-centric_warfare#cite_note-2"><span></span><span></span></a></sup> This networking—combined with changes in technology, organization, processes, and people—may allow new forms of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organizational_behavior" title="Organizational behavior">organizational behavior</a>.<br />
Specifically, the theory contains the following four tenets in its hypotheses:<sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-3"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network-centric_warfare#cite_note-3"><span></span><span></span></a></sup><br />
<ul>
<li>A robustly networked force improves information sharing;</li>
<li>Information sharing enhances the quality of information and shared <a class="mw-redirect" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Situational_awareness" title="Situational awareness">situational awareness</a>;</li>
<li>Shared situational awareness enables <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collaboration" title="Collaboration">collaboration</a> and self-synchronization, and enhances sustainability and speed of command; and</li>
<li>These, in turn, dramatically increase mission effectiveness."</li>
</ul>
Now that complexity can be measured in real-time using the QCM engine OntoNet, we can take things to the next level: Complexity-Centric Warfare. The first step is to map the entire information flow obtained from a multitude of sensors onto a Complexity Map (before the enemy can trigger an EMP!). The map evidently changes in time as the battle evolves. The concept is illustrated below.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTWmbAVtPne7Hejz5arxm8bGu3We0uzdn7F6mYMZxYQZrVQsMmTbaVgorMXLMcMS_b60AJ9R0CsHATZn1D8slA0KK0FT3X73SJkF4JxCzP33N0zqukCB4q7uwMsmxWggr-RlAPoLK0ZcC6/s1600/Battle_Map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTWmbAVtPne7Hejz5arxm8bGu3We0uzdn7F6mYMZxYQZrVQsMmTbaVgorMXLMcMS_b60AJ9R0CsHATZn1D8slA0KK0FT3X73SJkF4JxCzP33N0zqukCB4q7uwMsmxWggr-RlAPoLK0ZcC6/s640/Battle_Map.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Clearly, sensors gather data about all the forces involved in a particular scenario. The combined map, showing two opposing forces, is illustrated below (clearly, an extremely simple example is shown). Experiments in Air Traffic Control conducted by Ontonix show that it is possible to track hundreds of airborne objects using radar and in real-time. A Massively Parallel Processing version of OntoNet (currently under development) will allow to process thousands of objects.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBGLH2nEvm70Pqgxg6fH-IGy30sEEVoLXmJtpfb4sipiDa4k71ZMCFEPdil3BAgBzxY6khyphenhyphen05pgqduHmDyh-IrPiDoSVMqKIHvihD9PZO5IFDmlUPc0IL2MnRwHn4AYMud5K4xmk_34cH7/s1600/Enemy_hubs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBGLH2nEvm70Pqgxg6fH-IGy30sEEVoLXmJtpfb4sipiDa4k71ZMCFEPdil3BAgBzxY6khyphenhyphen05pgqduHmDyh-IrPiDoSVMqKIHvihD9PZO5IFDmlUPc0IL2MnRwHn4AYMud5K4xmk_34cH7/s640/Enemy_hubs.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Once the maps are established, two issues of <i>tactical </i>character become evident:<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Concentrate firepower on enemy hubs. </li>
<li>Protect your own hubs.</li>
</ul>
Hubs are easily identified once a Complexity Map is available. A more sophisticated <i>target ranking</i> approach is based on battle Complexity Profiling, which allows to ranks the various actors based on their footprint on the entire scenario. Clearly, just as a Complexity Map changes with time so will the Complexity profile.<br />
<br />
And now to <i>strategic </i>issues. How to manage a battle using complexity? Simple. Fast scenario simulation technology provides numerous options to chose from. And how do you chose between, say, two very similar options? You take the one with lower complexity. In other words, you try to steer the conflict in a way that reduces its complexity. The concept is illustrated below.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRH74ZPEdGSUCrsIKkByte-gIP2yY33X7kEvZdwDvilRYFzEvedsE4TYQAzcuuWkJ_HPREk-TyiRIMuvf9OmLt0VD6yB9VelLuJNOSKuk6cZCijltFtKk9uX5iLuVbB08YDd5Fy_NZc8zP/s1600/Battle_options.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRH74ZPEdGSUCrsIKkByte-gIP2yY33X7kEvZdwDvilRYFzEvedsE4TYQAzcuuWkJ_HPREk-TyiRIMuvf9OmLt0VD6yB9VelLuJNOSKuk6cZCijltFtKk9uX5iLuVbB08YDd5Fy_NZc8zP/s640/Battle_options.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
A less complex battle scenario is easier to manage. It is easier to comprehend.It allows for faster decision-making. It is easier to be more efficient in a less complex situation than a highly complex one. Finally, highly complex situations have the nasty habit of suddenly delivering surprising behavior. And in the worst possible moment. Sounds like one of Murphy's laws.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ontonix.com/">www.ontonix.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-85914065986455370102013-12-24T20:53:00.001+01:002013-12-25T21:04:28.027+01:00Amazing what Complexity Technology Can do for Medicine.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinRqgkxB2me_eRH1MWA1to9DDIuq9U_V1_liLKjcriLbRqr_yHlzmUP-O26mVkGCtfY5QJgGZe8KibBhPIufMDzqISTEI0ar_UnXAlobC7-aF8uZRWuoHqdakHiWDdGRFxUSsdYGpa2ESM/s1600/bigstock-Medicine-Doctor-Working-With-M-43167979.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinRqgkxB2me_eRH1MWA1to9DDIuq9U_V1_liLKjcriLbRqr_yHlzmUP-O26mVkGCtfY5QJgGZe8KibBhPIufMDzqISTEI0ar_UnXAlobC7-aF8uZRWuoHqdakHiWDdGRFxUSsdYGpa2ESM/s640/bigstock-Medicine-Doctor-Working-With-M-43167979.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<br />
Even though the so-called “complexity science” has been around for a few decades, it has failed to produce workable definitions and metrics of complexity. In fact, complexity still today is being seen as a series of phenomena of un-orchestrated self-organization (e.g. swarms of starlings), and emergence in which their complexity is never measured. In early 2005 the first Quantitative Complexity Theory (QCT) has been established by J. Marczyk. According to this theory, complexity is no longer seen as a process but as a new physical property of systems. Complexity, therefore, just like for example energy, is an attribute of every system. In nearly a decade, the QCT has found numerous applications is diverse fields. One of them is medicine.<br />
<br />
Because modern science lacks a holistic perspective, favouring super-specialization, a patient is rarely seen and treated as multi-organ dynamic system of systems. Due to this cultural limitation and because of the overwhelming complexity of the human body, only on rare occasions is medical science quantitative.....<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Read full <a href="http://www.blogger.com/Amazing%20what%20complexity%20theory%20can%20do%20for%20medicine.%20%20http://www.ontomeds.com/file/qct_medicine_white_paper.pdf">White Paper</a>.<br />
<br />
<br />
Click <a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/?function=ReadObf&obf_path=ardocCM/files/4/file/Ontomed/EEG_example.obf">here</a> for an Interactive Complexity Map of an EEG.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ontomeds.com/">www.ontomeds.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-75113976894274522012013-12-19T17:34:00.001+01:002013-12-19T17:34:07.389+01:00Ontonix S.r.l.: How to Dismantle the Derivatives Time Bomb?<a href="http://ontonix.blogspot.com/2013/12/how-to-dismantle-derivatives-time-bomb.html?spref=bl">Ontonix S.r.l.: How to Dismantle the Derivatives Time Bomb?</a>: From an article on financial modeling: "Modeling derivatives is of particular importance due to the relative size of the de...Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-45886871255960415582013-12-19T17:31:00.003+01:002013-12-19T17:31:43.002+01:00How to Dismantle the Derivatives Time Bomb?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI0Qukfy_ZxoTSyPRZT3vQKkxhsCw_0qq4MmpfjTPFmXlo6yRpSlcgBaAmnMYFDE_tLiyHC-b4Ud85rOV3LKRjkS3M9eDOKoeefmSNaBf5b1wOqMPsvLqTXqRO2x2P2OZqZDMXWXyTR4TG/s1600/ScreenHunter_446+Jul.+24+21.12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI0Qukfy_ZxoTSyPRZT3vQKkxhsCw_0qq4MmpfjTPFmXlo6yRpSlcgBaAmnMYFDE_tLiyHC-b4Ud85rOV3LKRjkS3M9eDOKoeefmSNaBf5b1wOqMPsvLqTXqRO2x2P2OZqZDMXWXyTR4TG/s1600/ScreenHunter_446+Jul.+24+21.12.jpg" height="390" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
From an <a href="http://ce-online.ryerson.ca/ce/default.aspx?id=3417">article </a> on financial modeling:<br />
<br />
<span id="content"></span><br />
"Modeling
derivatives is of particular importance due to the relative size of the
derivative market when compared to the real economy. If
we examine the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) estimate of
“Amounts outstanding of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives” in December
2010, this amounted to US$601,046 billion. To the World Bank estimate
of World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2010, the volume of financial transactions in the global economy is 73.5 times higher than nominal world GDP.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLplXEc1eUfy8XSczuzivImH0v2UlBOe8RaFwbDdGKlhbs5T0dHti0Xlvr9uQOj7VoBLcG-iF0FUZgLk2ii1TjsBZNzu2gX3fYhgxjs1famsszqQpqD-IAn0p6ikGT2e6God1CiFtGh8Yw/s1600/gross_market_value.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLplXEc1eUfy8XSczuzivImH0v2UlBOe8RaFwbDdGKlhbs5T0dHti0Xlvr9uQOj7VoBLcG-iF0FUZgLk2ii1TjsBZNzu2gX3fYhgxjs1famsszqQpqD-IAn0p6ikGT2e6God1CiFtGh8Yw/s1600/gross_market_value.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<span id="content"></span><br />
In 1990, this
ratio amounted to “only” 15.3. Transactions of stocks, bonds, and
foreign exchange have expanded roughly in tandem with nominal world GDP.
Hence, the overall increase in financial trading is exclusively due to
the spectacular boom of the derivatives markets. In
the final analysis, the mathematical modeling of this system of
obligations is an imperative for the world economy’s well-being."<br />
<br />
Basically, what this means, is that derivatives have engulfed our economy and our very existence relies on trading robots, stochastic integrals and Brownian motion. A very fragile situation which nobody today is able to grasp or control. The system is running on autopilot and nobody know how the autopilot works.<br />
<br />
Now, we all know that one salient characteristic of derivatives is their high complexity. This is because they have deliberately been designed to be complex. There are numerous reasons why one would want to design a very complex financial product. One of them is to fool investors. However, there are very important implications deriving from the immission of highly complex financial products into the global economy:<br />
<br />
1. Highly complex products have highly complex dynamics which are difficult to capture with conventional math methods. Monte Carlo, VaR, etc. are all techniques that not only belong to the past, they have contributed significantly to the crisis. This means they cannot be used to find a cure. If smoking causes cancer, smoking more will not make it go away.<br />
<br />
2. A product may be said to be complex, at a given moment in time, but, precisely because of the complex dynamics of derivatives, this complexity is never constant. It changes.<br />
<br />
3. If a product is said to be complex, it means that someone <i>must </i>have measured its complexity. Otherwise, how can such a claim be sustained? Serious science starts when you begin to measure. <br />
<br />
4. The biggest problem with derivatives is that of their rating. Since their real dynamics is essentially unknown (or deliberately masked), attempting to rate them is futile. This is where the Credit Rating Agencies failed when they triggered the financial meltdown. On the one hand they assigned investment-grade ratings to products which where known to be toxic, on the other hand their outdated methods of rating were simply not applicable to super complex financial products.<br />
<br />
This brings us to the main point of this article. Our economy looks more or less like this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4pqwfCx8pepcwkdVQzMGFD9VgbXRypcLBidnus6S_FtM0yrQFWzapA0X5WWLBuafnvYXjMiG0zNMdlX-EvxktBv_zCQMJL40Py2dA0ksIK5zBWcW1fazy0E-rIrb9Wk_5LysGiiQfVokC/s1600/bigstockphoto_Balancing_Bodyfat_1333995.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4pqwfCx8pepcwkdVQzMGFD9VgbXRypcLBidnus6S_FtM0yrQFWzapA0X5WWLBuafnvYXjMiG0zNMdlX-EvxktBv_zCQMJL40Py2dA0ksIK5zBWcW1fazy0E-rIrb9Wk_5LysGiiQfVokC/s1600/bigstockphoto_Balancing_Bodyfat_1333995.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
and we need to fix it before the system collapses. As you read this short article, every minute billions are being traded in hyperspace and the pile in the picture is growing. What can be done? There is no simple recipe. However, what <i>must </i>be done is this:<br />
<br />
1. Start to measure and monitor the real complexity of the financial products that are out there. There exist tools today to do this. One is <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/Analysis-Tools.htm">here</a>.<br />
<br />
2. Classify, rank and rate the complexity and resilience of derivatives. Establish maximum allowable levels of complexity and minimum allowable resilience of financial products. Products with low resilience contribute to making the system (economy) more fragile.<br />
<br />
3. Once the most complex (dangerous) derivatives have been identified, they should be withdrawn progressively from circulation. <br />
<br />
<br />
More soon.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">www.assetdyne.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-72642304505923959012013-12-17T18:53:00.001+01:002013-12-17T18:53:37.495+01:00Superior-Performance Portfolio Design via Complexity Theory<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHDVNlte4iraAD7Ni-uwSV8P-nUfK6z5iSUnF4n4tAiYVsrcUM1-femC7fm-LXUKx9U_Kdh_7rJqAvNt3r-5qgyFhVd0uR9QkjrVfw6dNuAddjgg6Un8bVlm0XUAbG8R48OurnezfeavrQ/s1600/Main_doc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHDVNlte4iraAD7Ni-uwSV8P-nUfK6z5iSUnF4n4tAiYVsrcUM1-femC7fm-LXUKx9U_Kdh_7rJqAvNt3r-5qgyFhVd0uR9QkjrVfw6dNuAddjgg6Un8bVlm0XUAbG8R48OurnezfeavrQ/s1600/Main_doc.jpg" height="486" width="640" /></a></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #595959;">Assetdyne</span><span style="color: #595959;"> LLC is a privately held company founded in 2013. </span><span style="color: #595959;">Assetdyne</span><span style="color: #595959;"> has developed
the Complexity Portfolio Theory (CPT) and offers an exclusive and sophisticated
system which measures the complexity and resilience of stocks and stock
portfolios and which introduces the concept of complexity to portfolio theory
and design.<br />
<br />
While conventional portfolio design often follows the Modern Portfolio Theory
(MPT), which identifies optimal portfolios via minimization of the total
portfolio variance, the technique developed by </span><span style="color: #595959;">Assetdyne</span><span style="color: #595959;"> designs portfolios based on the minimization of
portfolio complexity. The approach is based on the fact that excessively
complex systems are inherently </span><span style="color: #595959;">fragile </span></span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">See how low-complexity portfolios perform better.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Downlod the full presentation <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/file/assetdyne_portfolio_stability_rating.pdf">here</a>.</span></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">www.assetdyne.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-53666298135783722512013-12-13T19:29:00.002+01:002013-12-13T19:54:43.228+01:00First Complexity-based Portfolio Design System<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghjmDWxN14zGvV6Mfc8nmWW_TYRmhosLxyJZPyrA66J_tWHz5I7ZRy1VcVV26ok2gkor8RQVEa9vE3HHt8Goadv0E2HTjAe09eBhFHj4w79YGDgd9MDzztPk_bSy6moVdPIMYoMxGYvTIH/s1600/ADyneHP.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghjmDWxN14zGvV6Mfc8nmWW_TYRmhosLxyJZPyrA66J_tWHz5I7ZRy1VcVV26ok2gkor8RQVEa9vE3HHt8Goadv0E2HTjAe09eBhFHj4w79YGDgd9MDzztPk_bSy6moVdPIMYoMxGYvTIH/s1600/ADyneHP.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
Assetdyne introduces Quantitative Complexity Science to portfolio
analysis and design. Disruptive innovation in finance in its purest
form. Check out the new <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">website</a> </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
See interactive <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/Examples.htm">examples</a> of stock portfolios.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">www.assetdyne.com</a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXVjKoHLEo2GUydSv61y1VGT3MOLtaKDjkXiFfyTaYGnqLoHlUws9ip642AbSgPnYSY1Nsvg03_po2pocfBTfAwkHSQEo6491SuJJguf6yr-bf7BoYWvrjjmlPSmCXnqHbiArQ0C0gHAZj/s1600/ADyneHP.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div>
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-59998214793843537462013-12-09T20:54:00.002+01:002013-12-09T20:54:20.762+01:00Some Financial Products Are Said to be Complex. But How Complex is That?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-atiR8u160VVuT4D45z-B5nACMBIUlPRR7eIvjkzGk_oln3IKidiDAL-2CX5ClX68rm9TbmYpScpv6v3A-jwvkjUp9p_WmdGqJj1utJmXLFiJNi7_aAnbDQWDoJrutQFbvEX8bRYvRKFV/s1600/Crowdrating.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="465" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-atiR8u160VVuT4D45z-B5nACMBIUlPRR7eIvjkzGk_oln3IKidiDAL-2CX5ClX68rm9TbmYpScpv6v3A-jwvkjUp9p_WmdGqJj1utJmXLFiJNi7_aAnbDQWDoJrutQFbvEX8bRYvRKFV/s640/Crowdrating.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<span class="testo">Assetdyne offers an on-line <a href="http://www.assetdynex.com/"> tool </a>which
allows users to measure the complexity and resilience of a single
security or a portfolio. The tool is connected in real-time to US
markets and allows to monitor any security listed therein.<br /><br />The tool allows investors to answer the following questions:<br /></span><br />
<ul>
<li>How complex is a portfolio? </li>
<li>How complex is a financial product, such as a derivative?</li>
<li>What is the maximum complexity a portfolio can reach?</li>
<li>How resilient is it? How well can it resist the market turbulence?</li>
<li>What does the portfolio structure look like?</li>
<li>How interdependent are the stocks composing the portfolio?</li>
<li>Which stocks actually dominate portfolio dynamics?</li>
<li>How well can the dynamics of the portfolio be predicted?</li>
</ul>
<br />
See examples of portfolios (and their complexities) - click on a portfolio to open an interactive Portfolio Complexity Map:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/?function=ReadObf&obf_path=ardocCM/files/7/file/obf_files/auto.obf">Automotive</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/?function=ReadObf&obf_path=ardocCM/files/7/file/obf_files/steel.obf">Steel</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/?function=ReadObf&obf_path=ardocCM/files/7/file/obf_files/gold.obf">Gold Mining</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/?function=ReadObf&obf_path=ardocCM/files/7/file/obf_files/oilgas.obf">Oil & gas</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/?function=ReadObf&obf_path=ardocCM/files/7/file/obf_files/pharma.obf">Pharmaceutical</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/?function=ReadObf&obf_path=ardocCM/files/7/file/obf_files/it%281%29.obf">IT Industry</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/?function=ReadObf&obf_path=ardocCM/files/7/file/obf_files/eubanks.obf">EU Banks</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/?function=ReadObf&obf_path=ardocCM/files/7/file/obf_files/usbanks.obf">US banks</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/?function=ReadObf&obf_path=ardocCM/files/7/file/obf_files/djia.obf">Dow Jones</a><br /><br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.assetdynex.com/">www.assetdynex.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-79295964166518832132013-12-03T11:37:00.002+01:002013-12-03T11:37:42.098+01:00OntoMed Launches OntoNet-CARDIO for Real-Time Anticipation of Tachycardias and Fibrillations<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoKWIHD_7plxR3gl_AeEq7zEKG1y8rg88R86ZjIEdYIveYgmblLgl8OtU4FNRQWRRIWGfpxyWTilpDUoQd8YLoEsR8RIxb4eJgaiSv_bbnhh-hhBu3K73-Hzm2wIRV2sl-loxOW7pMgNt6/s1600/bigstockphoto_Stethoscope_By_Computer_Keyboa_420595.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="425" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoKWIHD_7plxR3gl_AeEq7zEKG1y8rg88R86ZjIEdYIveYgmblLgl8OtU4FNRQWRRIWGfpxyWTilpDUoQd8YLoEsR8RIxb4eJgaiSv_bbnhh-hhBu3K73-Hzm2wIRV2sl-loxOW7pMgNt6/s640/bigstockphoto_Stethoscope_By_Computer_Keyboa_420595.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
OntoMed, a privately-owned company developing leading-edge
complexity-based technology and solutions for applications in medicine,
releases OntoNet-Cardio, an advanced algorithm which processes EGMs
(Electrograms) providing early-warnings of imminent tachycardia and/or
fibrillation. "The algorithm does not detect tachycardias or
fibrillations, it anticipates them by identifying pre-event conditions
as early as 15-20 seconds before they actually happen" said Dr. J.
Marczyk, the CEO of OntoMed. "The principle on which OntoNet-Cardio
functions has been verified in a multitude of fields and applications
and is based on sudden variations of complexity which precede traumatic
events" he added. "We are open to partnerships and collaborations with
ICD/pacemaker manufacturers who are interested in incorporating our
technology in their products" he concluded.<br />
<br />
The image below illustrates how the system functions.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6Hjaoob-sB921tVhCeSVfsFjd3TEW0B8-XMsaSkxwufdY-MQd6WA6t1cn34y-7lvkH_D0OvLlfkjrrR1vrChjCRhvYVTEacxcm7XOX-MLNU5Hp-e7O9ojftBVves6xMCQMJM2A_fg5LYF/s1600/VT_anticipation.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6Hjaoob-sB921tVhCeSVfsFjd3TEW0B8-XMsaSkxwufdY-MQd6WA6t1cn34y-7lvkH_D0OvLlfkjrrR1vrChjCRhvYVTEacxcm7XOX-MLNU5Hp-e7O9ojftBVves6xMCQMJM2A_fg5LYF/s640/VT_anticipation.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Read full Press Release <a href="http://www.ontomeds.com/OntoMed-Releases-Software-for-Real-Time-Anticipation-of-Fibrillation-and-Tachycardia-Events.htm">here</a>. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ontomeds.com/">www.ontomeds.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-77051473932671730382013-11-25T12:36:00.002+01:002013-11-27T19:52:12.275+01:00Modeling Risk and Model-Induced Risk<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSh3XDiQBnq4FiWLo8NA8fP3bJRLruE7vTu3nFW7W6329lfDeFGzctUq-xByyiWdGVa0LHLnvHRFHoJHPIm513XHMcY3ILfP0agtORgdRHDo6Mk0ciXudezitQizQvPu_g0Pl7m4t52niX/s1600/Random_field.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSh3XDiQBnq4FiWLo8NA8fP3bJRLruE7vTu3nFW7W6329lfDeFGzctUq-xByyiWdGVa0LHLnvHRFHoJHPIm513XHMcY3ILfP0agtORgdRHDo6Mk0ciXudezitQizQvPu_g0Pl7m4t52niX/s640/Random_field.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Models are simplified representations or emulators of reality. They are typically based on empirical data collected conducting experiments. There exist numerous techniques for establishing models based on raw field data. An example of a linear model, built based on 2-dimensional data is illustrated below.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsgy5SXJi2-1XB6E_yvginuNjasGuzL93CKyd40WKCsM9Q2x1zUC0xMI9UDKyCKtQ9wmpiyUqxDm3-zyz2DSN2UAPv9F6QtCkOIQlBYQq0KobjAPrYemIKjxL7P1KLsAkUFlVh8QOKQena/s1600/Model_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsgy5SXJi2-1XB6E_yvginuNjasGuzL93CKyd40WKCsM9Q2x1zUC0xMI9UDKyCKtQ9wmpiyUqxDm3-zyz2DSN2UAPv9F6QtCkOIQlBYQq0KobjAPrYemIKjxL7P1KLsAkUFlVh8QOKQena/s320/Model_1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
The model in this simple case is a straight line. It may be used, for example, to compute the value of one variable when the other is given. This is particularly useful for values which fall in between the raw data used to build the model.<br />
<br />
A more interesting case is illustrated below. Here too the data lie on a straight line. However, there is a void between the two groups of data points. This poses a problem. In cases such as this one a single model is built, passing through both groups of points. In other words, a most dangerous assumption is made: that of continuity. This is a very common mistake. The mere fact that all the points in question lie on a straight line does not guarantee that in the void between the two groups the line still constitutes a valid model.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXuJHhgAuQnaOwL5DXWVI_XAeW7zeG4vkijSWaq5nAox0mot596QFIwgVbyr5iJ1lMAeNq4PGm4MzhCXTikFtY6-TgLe4NzAVwzET62cK5_iS_ngQFeYS6JCnqJW9MeCpRSaxeY9qQnvJC/s1600/Model_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXuJHhgAuQnaOwL5DXWVI_XAeW7zeG4vkijSWaq5nAox0mot596QFIwgVbyr5iJ1lMAeNq4PGm4MzhCXTikFtY6-TgLe4NzAVwzET62cK5_iS_ngQFeYS6JCnqJW9MeCpRSaxeY9qQnvJC/s320/Model_2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
The mistake proves often fatal, and more so when the domain one wishes a particular model to embrace is more articulated. In the above case, there should be two local models, not one. <br />
<br />
Models should be used with caution and ONLY in the domains where they have been validated. Extending the usage of a model beyond such a domain has consequences which grow with the model's complexity. Moreover, when a model's applicability is stretched, very seldom the effects are actually measured. The actual equations might still work but that does not guarantee that the model isn't violating some basic laws or rules.<br />
<br />
The bottom line:<br />
<br />
<ol style="text-align: left;">
<li>Models should be used <i>only </i>in the domain where they have been validated.</li>
<li>More complex models require more assumptions and therefore induce more uncertainty into the original problem than simpler models.</li>
<li>The more complex a domain (in topological sense) that a model has to embrace, the easier it is to violate some basic laws with it. And it is more difficult to spot them.</li>
<li>The most frequent and deadly malpractice when models are involved is the assumption of continuity. Nature is not "smooth and differentiable".</li>
<li>The additional risk deriving from the fact that a surrogate of reality is used is rarely measured.</li>
</ol>
<br />
One more rule: the most important things in a model are those it doesn't contain.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ontonix.com/">www.ontonix.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-79331147976483217392013-11-10T16:15:00.001+01:002013-11-10T16:15:06.395+01:00Rating a Company Based on Its Balance Sheet AND Stock Markets<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix1WrK1LydZma5vq-NJQ6lSRnH32PlKG5F4QSJpHYMHrOF84pePS_oVqkzwdl5wpmXAuhNZlBe_hJmFyhEZOnpc4BXA4FZybQv_Yop_UCuHAQ0a9Zak6OYbwcBblp34Mq_egSEnxixPF8N/s1600/MarketsFinancials.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix1WrK1LydZma5vq-NJQ6lSRnH32PlKG5F4QSJpHYMHrOF84pePS_oVqkzwdl5wpmXAuhNZlBe_hJmFyhEZOnpc4BXA4FZybQv_Yop_UCuHAQ0a9Zak6OYbwcBblp34Mq_egSEnxixPF8N/s640/MarketsFinancials.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Traditional rating of corporations is based on analysis of financials statements such as Balance Sheets, Cash Flows and Income Statements. Traders, on the other hand, look at stock performance, analyze trends, make projections. Often there is no time to look at Balance Sheets as things happen at Internet speeds. While trading takes place a thousand times per second, traditional rating is performed once a year when the Consolidates Balance Statement is published.<br />
<br />
Recently, London-based <a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/index.php">Assetdyne</a> has established a new form of Resilience Rating based exclusively on the performance of a company's stock - a radically innovative<b> high-frequency rating</b> mechanism.<br />
<br />
Ontonix has recently come up with a new rating methodology which brings together both worlds - <b>Integrated Resilience Rating</b>. Basically, we blend quarterly financial statements with quarterly stock market performance. This is what it looks like in the form of an integrated Business Structure Map:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFZTGcI27peiUOG3GyGXrNHgJLqxuUWJ7LXj2TNEQDap1kO8BHvybqwHMQNzRCFBRUFveBltYJ2-BblHGtaeQ-9pPRpuLRqiGSURADjy_67sqpfvFNsfdGyLORx9k3Vdb2I20jSMi8k2qf/s1600/MT_Map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFZTGcI27peiUOG3GyGXrNHgJLqxuUWJ7LXj2TNEQDap1kO8BHvybqwHMQNzRCFBRUFveBltYJ2-BblHGtaeQ-9pPRpuLRqiGSURADjy_67sqpfvFNsfdGyLORx9k3Vdb2I20jSMi8k2qf/s640/MT_Map.jpg" width="640" /> </a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The first 13 nodes correspond to stock market-specific information. The remainder come from a Balance Statement. The Complexity Profile below - which provides a quantitative and natural ranking of the relevance of each parameter in the map - shows in the case in question "Divided" is as important as, for example "Assets" - both have a footprint of approximately 7% on the Integrated Resilience Rating.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiJmMFhDsdCYwvYDbZ-q7NDBsm6thMyq74yMM6C-Fcg00n9dee1At57txJZfwrZVC9eVXFLsd_QFN0Ifm-UFRtAo5Ank3wYfxkMRIC-tL_weQ5UY-LJnmgXZTiV2k4kPyS-ul7fdosgdG9/s1600/MT_CP.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiJmMFhDsdCYwvYDbZ-q7NDBsm6thMyq74yMM6C-Fcg00n9dee1At57txJZfwrZVC9eVXFLsd_QFN0Ifm-UFRtAo5Ank3wYfxkMRIC-tL_weQ5UY-LJnmgXZTiV2k4kPyS-ul7fdosgdG9/s640/MT_CP.jpg" width="574" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
More examples of Integrated Resilience Ratings are available <a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/Examples/">here</a>.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Quarterly Integrated Resilience Rating is now offered to public companies on a subscription basis. For more information <a href="mailto:info@ontonix.com">contact us</a>.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.ontonix.com/">www.ontonix.com</a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.rate-a-business.com/">www.rate-a-business.com</a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-77536218116355677452013-11-03T21:15:00.000+01:002013-11-03T21:15:03.294+01:00Top EU Versus US Banks and Which System is More Vulnerable.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBYaegd3aNs_keGoAqQSOrDmliQDiUdhkazRRgX7ry6mPqVayr8iFJ-PtRetO6T5VcdiChk6V8fBxt-IBHqzQ0i5GYaHMyasX2iw86lJVtFGjuspURWJGO-qsU-ruX1O6SwCLxf40UyKg6/s1600/EU_US_flag.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBYaegd3aNs_keGoAqQSOrDmliQDiUdhkazRRgX7ry6mPqVayr8iFJ-PtRetO6T5VcdiChk6V8fBxt-IBHqzQ0i5GYaHMyasX2iw86lJVtFGjuspURWJGO-qsU-ruX1O6SwCLxf40UyKg6/s640/EU_US_flag.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Which system of banks is more robust, that of the US or the European one? A recent analysis performed by ASSETDYNE using stock market data reveals that the US market is far less vulnerable in case of contagion. Here are the results.<br />
<br />
Top US Banks.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDXgUfxHgO-WvAchSSW6glRKtIW1bv8ERNJW_XLxIqUEprNAbNZKnCE5S7RSZdbN7lQ_9WiK4Fsxf9B3mVviAU5AShfPcMqne5WXCmBwo-yMwTb-S3hVYk5O7foIs-CRyCl4w6ZgNc8XM5/s1600/US_banks.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="425" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDXgUfxHgO-WvAchSSW6glRKtIW1bv8ERNJW_XLxIqUEprNAbNZKnCE5S7RSZdbN7lQ_9WiK4Fsxf9B3mVviAU5AShfPcMqne5WXCmBwo-yMwTb-S3hVYk5O7foIs-CRyCl4w6ZgNc8XM5/s640/US_banks.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
A 4-star rating (84%) points to a resilient situation.<br />
<br />
Top EU Banks.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Vwthi4zNeGB4ecj5iGa2PU9NbU85EHRWeY1YuWSZjv__RWWfHdO0qazweGgqgXjdtimVW4MXX5PdNitsKIwxM1D4UZep6bs2vxgOZEQSj9kRbStRhxDTYLQyihkvb6iHDWJYwfunwrOI/s1600/Top_EU_Banks.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Vwthi4zNeGB4ecj5iGa2PU9NbU85EHRWeY1YuWSZjv__RWWfHdO0qazweGgqgXjdtimVW4MXX5PdNitsKIwxM1D4UZep6bs2vxgOZEQSj9kRbStRhxDTYLQyihkvb6iHDWJYwfunwrOI/s640/Top_EU_Banks.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Again, a 4-star rating (85%) reveals high resilience. So why is the US system potentially less vulnerable? Look at the map densities. The US Complexity Map has a density of 32%, that of the EU banks 76%, far more than double. This means in case of financial contagion, the EU system of banks is far more vulnerable that the American one. This is also evident if one examines the size of the nodes in each map. In the case of the US, there are 3, 4 dominant nodes (hubs) while in the EU almost all banks have equal footprint. Of course, we're not talking of revenue - by footprint we mean the impact of each bank on the overall resilience of the system. The above results also means that the EU system is far more difficult to reform than the US banking system. It is alo much more complex (39.37 versus 25.28) Providing one wants to reform it. And financial lobbies allowing it.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.assetdyne.com/">www.assetdyne.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1470735311296810107.post-30600476177421391962013-11-03T16:54:00.001+01:002013-11-03T16:54:22.606+01:00How Complex is an Ulam Spiral<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrzu8iZgpgRn3WGv30pT24jsCcRzvl8bMoqHA0APQd-Saatf7FkIAVSSBG0uxUEJq9PS4hxj0744jlQdCG7KIzWk4A6NNYKROA71Q6mvJ66jWR-qvw7bhf6ee9s8a8gj6Ztr_X8UiZR3fx/s1600/US.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="353" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrzu8iZgpgRn3WGv30pT24jsCcRzvl8bMoqHA0APQd-Saatf7FkIAVSSBG0uxUEJq9PS4hxj0744jlQdCG7KIzWk4A6NNYKROA71Q6mvJ66jWR-qvw7bhf6ee9s8a8gj6Ztr_X8UiZR3fx/s400/US.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
From Wikipedia: "The <b>Ulam spiral</b>, or <b>prime spiral</b> (in other languages also called the <b>Ulam Cloth</b>) is a simple method of visualizing the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_number" title="Prime number">prime numbers</a>
that reveals the apparent tendency of certain quadratic polynomials to
generate unusually large numbers of primes. It was discovered by the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematician" title="Mathematician">mathematician</a> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislaw_Ulam" title="Stanislaw Ulam">Stanislaw Ulam</a> in 1963..."<br />
<br />
How complex is it? Here goes the Complexity Map of the above image:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYsiUtAyz5lKzaPQwVr6kRJp4mcMtrLyPsu6u1fhYfsYpPInE_zzxUXy7qfW0wsbeCGMPhrFoX70WoJB11vELL5vdNUV9jbXDTiLbuksVy2slfcpZk5YQljimW_tIfgP8Ga9SNpT7Cc_Li/s1600/US_Map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYsiUtAyz5lKzaPQwVr6kRJp4mcMtrLyPsu6u1fhYfsYpPInE_zzxUXy7qfW0wsbeCGMPhrFoX70WoJB11vELL5vdNUV9jbXDTiLbuksVy2slfcpZk5YQljimW_tIfgP8Ga9SNpT7Cc_Li/s400/US_Map.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
These are the corresponding complexity measures:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPGU6wVD1ChoYeh3A_0D1SuLQgg8OIE2RsE9w6J7znQuH7IzDcgQ6YljUaT8IutLgAJEsEMbBwY4A1cHK6pvkj_OqnHnij00Y0GkbzVGq8dn9Y2oeje3UDTJxUoUVcVld1SvMa5hqCfI19/s1600/US_C.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPGU6wVD1ChoYeh3A_0D1SuLQgg8OIE2RsE9w6J7znQuH7IzDcgQ6YljUaT8IutLgAJEsEMbBwY4A1cHK6pvkj_OqnHnij00Y0GkbzVGq8dn9Y2oeje3UDTJxUoUVcVld1SvMa5hqCfI19/s1600/US_C.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
The high robustness of the image - 76.8% - means that its structure is relatively strong. This means, for example, that the image may be de-focused and still transmit most of the information it contains.<br />
<br />
The amount of information the image transmits is nearly 154 bits.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ontonix.com/">www.ontonix.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01157879433402051178noreply@blogger.com0