Frank Drake devised an equation to express the hypothetical
number of observable civilizations in our galaxy N = Rs nh fl fi fc L,
where N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy, expressed as the
product of six factors: Rs is the rate of star formation, nh is the
number of habitable worlds per star, fl is the fraction of habitable
worlds on which life arises, fi is the fraction of inhabited worlds with
intelligent life, fc is the fraction of intelligent life forms that
produce civilizations, and L is the average lifetime of such
civilizations. But there is an evident paradox. According to the Drake
equation, our Universe should be populated by thousands of civilizations
similar to our’s. The number of stars that appear to be orbited by
Earth-like planets increases on an almost daily basis. But if that is
the case, where is everybody? Why are there no signs of their existence?
Why does SETI fail to produce evidence that would support the Drake
equation?
In 1981, cosmologist Edward Harrison suggested a powerful
self-regulating mechanism that would neatly resolve the paradox. Any
civilization bent on the intensive colonization of other worlds would be
driven by an expansive territorial impulse. But such an aggressive
nature would be unstable in combination with the immense technological
powers required for interstellar travel. Such a civilization would
self-destruct long before it could reach for the stars. The unrestrained
territorial drive that served biological evolution so well for millions
of years becomes a severe liability for a species once it acquires
powers more than sufficient for its self-destruction. The Milky Way may
well contain civilizations more advanced than ours, but they must have
passed through a filter of natural selection that eliminates, by war or
other self-inflicted environmental catastrophes, those civilizations
driven by aggressive expansion.
We propose an alternative explanation of the paradox. In the past,
the Earth was populated by numerous and disjoint civilizations that
thrived almost in isolation. The Sumers, the Mayas, the Incas, the
Greeks, the Romans, etc., etc. If one or more of these civilizations
happened to disappear, many more remained. The temporal and spatial
correlation between civilizations was very limited. However, the Earth
today is populated by one single globalized civilization. If this one
fails, that’s it. As we know, the evolution and growth of a civilization
manifests itself in an increase in complexity. The Egyptians, for
example, deliberately chose not to evolve and for many centuries they
haven’t advanced an inch. Such a static civilization is only possible in
the presence of an extremely structured and rigid society. But any form
of progress is accompanied by an increase in complexity (a mix of
structure and entropy). Until critical complexity is reached. Close to
criticality, a system becomes fragile and therefore vulnerable. In order
to continue evolving beyond critical complexity, a civilization must
find ways of overcoming the delicate phase of vulnerability in which
self-inflicted destruction is the most probable form of demise. It
appears - see our previous articles - that our globalized society is now
arguably headed for collapse and shall reach criticality around
2040-2045. What does this mean? If we fail to move past criticality,
there will be no second chance, no other civilization will take over, at
least not for millenia. Clearly, the biological lifetime of our species
is likely to be several million years, even if we do our worst, but as
far as technological progress is concerned, that will essentially be it.
Based on our complexity metric and on the Second Law of Thermodynamics
we can conclude that any world populated by multiple and disjoint
civilizations will always tends towards a single globalized society. It
appears that globalization is inevitable and this, in turn, accelerates
the increase of complexity until criticality is reached.
We argue that the self-regulating mechanism that Harrison suggests
ultimately stems from critical complexity. Only a civilization which is
capable of evolving beyond criticality and in the presence of
overwhelmingly powerful technology, can ever hope to reach for the
stars. In other words, critical complexity is the hurdle that prevents
evolution beyond self-inflicted extinction. Since none of the ancient
(and not so ancient) civilizations never evolved beyond critical
complexity - in fact, they’re all gone - they were all pre-critical
civilizations. There has never been on Earth a post-critical
civilization. The only one left that has a chance of becoming a
post-critical one is our’s. But what conditions must a civilization meet
in order to transition beyond criticality? Essentially two. First, it
must lay its hands on technology to actively manage complexity. Second,
it must have enough time to employ it. The technology exists. Since 2005.
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